History Repeats Itself: What About War?


JT Bogden - War is an unpleasant aspect of life and wars seem to be inevitable regardless of how peace-loving one has become. Evil will always bring wars to the peace-loving people who must decide how to deal with the onset of war. There are only a few options; fight, flee or submit. Remaining neutral is nothing more than submitting or surrendering.


Long Term Trending


A Long-term economic trend known as a supercycle or Kondratiev Wave has war cycling about every 80 years and coincides with major American history. The Revolutionary War, Civil War, World War II, and the current times all have the same pattern consistent with this supercycle.


The repeating pattern involves a 30 year period of rapid growth followed by a 30 year period of increasing commoditization when making money become more difficult. Then there is about a 5-year boom period, a 12 year bust period, and a major war lasting up to 5 years before repeating the cycle again beginning with a new way of living.


The most recent cycle has shown the pattern with the following sequence and approximate years.


~1945: WWII ends & the Rapid Growth term begins as the Age of Luxury Living

~1975: Rapid growth period transitions to the Commoditization period as companies began right-sizing, downsizing, reorganizing, and offshoring

~2005: The commoditization period transitions to the short boom period with the rise of the housing boom and dot-com boom.

~2010: The Dotcom and housing boom transitions to the bust period

~2022: The bust should conclude with the onset of war

There was some timing variation in the sequence that may have been politically driven. For example, the Bust Period seemed to start closer to 2008 as the economy began to falter with huge layoffs. The transition to the Commoditization Period seemed to start following 1976 as interest rates skyrocketed, an energy crisis set in, and windfall profits became taboo. Nonetheless, the cycle seems to be closely on point.


Rarely do people see the conditions that lead to the onset of war. There are conflicts occurring in other cycles and skirmishes that spring up not connected to any cycle that confuses the circumstances. Political activity may also influence variations and conflicts.


Political Influences


Let us look at American history and the influences that the Political Left has had on causing the US involvement in belligerence. I hold that the peace-loving Progressives through their leadership and decision making have precipitated nearly all the US involvement in more than a century of wars. Progressives continue to demonstrate an inept ability at leadership.

  1. The first Progressive president was Teddy Roosevelt who commissioned the Great White Fleet to introduce America to the world at the turn of the 20th century. The Great White Fleet sailed around the world remarking; be our friend or we will attack. They used the philosophy that either a country is our friend or our enemy.

  2. After 8 US-flagged ships were sunk by German U-boats, President Woodrow Wilson, a Progressive, insisted that the US was too proud to fight. An emboldened Germany then tried to ally Mexicans against the US. Congress overrode the President drawing the US into WWI.

  3. President Franklin Roosevelt, a Progressive, defunded the military, parked many Navy ships at the pier, and much of the military was poorly trained for combat. The Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor as the Pacific fleet was sitting ducks. Radar operators thought the Japanese attack force was an unscheduled training exercise.

  4. President Truman, a Progressive, ordered the world's first and only use of Nuclear weapons to end WWII. The Truman doctrine got the US into the Korean War which has never ended with a live DMZ today and a third-generation dictator. Truman ended one war and started an indefinite war.

  5. President Johnson, a Progressive, faked the Gulf of Token Incident which has been proven to be a lie, and got America into the Vietnam War after the French had completely withdrawn from a hopeless situation.

  6. President Carter, a Progressive, turned his back on the Shah of Iran effectively turning Iran over to Islamic fundamentalists who in turn overran the Embassy and took US hostages for 444 days. Later Ahmadinejad, one of the terrorists who held the hostages, became President of Iran. Carter attempted a failed military rescue of the hostages that was doomed from the start due to poor planning and leadership.

  7. April Glaspie, a Progressive US diplomat, gave Saddam Hussein the green light to invade Kuwait sparking the Gulf Wars and US involvement.

  8. President Clinton, A Progressive, demonstrated complete ineptness at foreign policy, diplomacy, and military use. During diplomatic talks in Haiti with diplomats on the ground, launched bombers threatening the capture of the US diplomats. Clinton, knowing of Osama Bin Laden's threat to the US, bombed mountain goats and empty villages claiming to just miss Osama Bin Laden setting the conditions for the 911 event.

  9. President Obama, a Progressive, apologized for being the US and took a submissive posture around the world. He embraced the Arab Spring which sought to unify the Middle East under the Muslim Brotherhood by ousting leaders who were soft towards the West in favor of more hard-line fundamentalist leadership. Obama used the US military to weaken long-standing Islamic leaders in order to be replaced by fundamentalists. Unification of the Middle East is necessary for Global Government and establishing a regional center of economic influence. Obama also attempted to normalize US relations with longstanding threats to democracy. Much of this administration's influence and outcomes need to be seen in time.

Where are we today and what has transpired? Is the situation any better or different than in the past? Coincidentally, modern political factions map just a little too close to the Biblical Jewish sects of the Pharisees and the Sadduccees. The Political Left could be seen as the Sadducees who were focused on the law of the land and liberalism. Not one Sadduccee came to Christ in the Bible. America's founding is 100% from the Bible including the original intent for warfighting doctrine.


The Biblical Warfighting Doctrine


Most scholars either reject or are very reluctant to discuss warfighting doctrine in the Bible. Many scholars will claim there is no such doctrine. Before I get into the details, I want to clarify the difference between a warfighting doctrine and a doctrine of war. Warfighting doctrine is a set of principles, duties, and responsibilities or a dogma established as a response to the act of war or serious threat. A doctrine of war is the provocative use of force to gain land, resources, passage, or impose one way of life on another way of life. The Bible has a warfighting doctrine that is consistent with God's war on evil and wickedness, Genesis 3:15 and Ephesians 6:12, and establishing Christ as Lord, Revelation 19:11, who judges and commands legions of Angels. These Angelic forces battle demonic forces that march on the City of God, Jerusalem, through the Valley of Armageddon.


As for humans throughout the Bible, there are several kinds of war; secular wars, holy wars, and wars of judgment. Secular wars are of human origin and human objectives and work for the good of God. Holy wars only involve Israel. Wars of judgment are when God judges nations based on their treatment of Israel or rebellion against God's order. God judges nations using war.


Biblically, the government prosecutes the war. A nation goes to war only after peaceful attempts at resolving the reasons leading to war have failed. When a nation wars, they do so with the intent to annihilate the enemy. War booty is prohibited and should never be expected. Prisoners of war are to be treated humanely. If the enemy surrenders then the prevailing nation is to indoctrinate the fallen nation into Godly ways as bad cultures are not to be preserved. The Bible assigns duties and responsibilities to gender. If necessary to war, males are called to fight beginning at the age 18.


Nothing New Under the Sun


Wars come and go throughout history for all sorts of reasons. Some are random skirmishes, many wars result from megalomaniacs seeking power, and others are occurring on cycles. All wars are a reflection of the fight between good and evil. War is brought to the peace-loving people by evil actors. The peace-loving people must determine how they are to respond.


Based on long-term economic cycles, the world is poised for a major war in the near term. Traditional wars have been dyadic or have two opposing sides. In the modern world, there is a possibility that the coming cyclic war will be a complex war involving many actors. This will be a difficult war to fight as there will be several opposing sides whose alliances shift regularly based on moving objectives founded on power, money, and control.


War is inevitable and we need to learn from our past as well as look to successful doctrines. Otherwise, we are doomed to repeat mistakes, achieve lukewarm outcomes, and sadly cause loss of life.


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